PRESEASON PREDICTIONS: NL/AL EAST

 NL East

5. Miami Marlins

There’s no way this team doesn’t finish last. With the team’s massive exodus of stars via trade, all you can do at this point is feel bad for the fans, the Miami taxpayers, and Giancarlo Stanton. Hopefully he hits a ball hard enough to break that piece of trash in center field.

4. New York Mets

The Mets are dealing with a ton of injuries. Johan Santana is hurt again, and their outfield is banged up as well. They have newly named captain David Wright (who is questionable for the start of the season), but lost NL Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey. This team will have bright spots (Matt Harvey will be fun to watch, and David Wright is always good), but there are more question marks, due to injuries especially, than bright spots. Considering the talent on the Phillies, Braves, and Nationals, I just don’t think this team can compete.

3. Philadephia Phillies

The Phillies are an old team. They spent most of their young guys in their “win now” mode of the past few years. In order for this team to compete, the key is health. Chase Utley and Ryan Howard must stay healthy if this team wants to even think about doing anything. There are big questions about the health of Roy Halladay and his velocity. If he can’t get his speed up, or figure out how to pitch with a slower repertoire, major league hitters will knock him around. Cole Hamels should have a big year, but Cliff Lee isn’t getting any younger. If the veterans on this team can have a very productive summer, they might be able to snag a wild card, but don’t count on it.

2. Atlanta Braves

The only reason I don’t see the Braves winning the division is pitching. They have a lot of good pitchers, to be sure, but a lot of them are young guys, and they lack a clear “ace”. That being said, they have good pitching and an even better lineup, featuring the newly acquired Upton brothers. This team is going to be very, very good, but when you compare them with the Nationals, you have to give Washington the edge. Atlanta should have no problem securing a wild card berth, though, and given their speed and pitching (including top notch closer Craig Kimbrel), they could make some noise in the playoffs. It all depends on the guys who have to knock the runs in, though. If Freddie Freeman has a big year, look out.

1. Washington Nationals

This team could very well win the World Series this year. They have speed in Denard Span and Bryce Harper. They have Jayson Werth back. They have all around hitter Ryan Zimmerman at third. Their rotation has a potential two Cy Young candidates in Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez, along with other solid starters in Jordan Zimmermann and Dan Haren. Oh, and have you seen their bullpen? Tyler Clippard, Drew Storen, and Rafael Soriano. There are almost no holes in this team, and as long as the players who need to put up numbers do that, they will easily make the playoffs and go very far.

AL East

5.  Baltimore Orioles

It really bums me out that I have to put the Orioles here. I really like the team and what they are doing. It was awesome watching them make the playoffs last year. Unfortunately, it won’t happen again this year. They were unbelievable in 1 run games last year, but frankly, that is impossible to duplicate. They’ve lost some players, and their younger pitchers and position players are in position for a slump. I expect good years from Adam Jones and Chris Davis, but this team frequently deals with injuries to key players. This team could be a couple years away from a good run. Look out.

4. New York Yankees

Oh, how the mighty have fallen. There has been a plethora of statistics thrown around all offseason for the amount of Home Runs the lineup is missing due to injuries, as well as the amount of money they are paying to players on the DL. It looks like they will be without Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, and Curtis Granderson for at least part of the season. Robinson Cano should have a good contract year, but the rest of their lineup is lined with players that are either offensive zeroes or players past their primes. Staff ace Sabathia should have another good season, but I can’t see the rest of the staff compensating for the deficient, injury-ridden offense against the ever-potent AL East. Who knows, the team might buy its way to contention, but with their intentions of getting below the luxury tax threshold, and the rumors of the team being sold, I doubt that will happen. Overall, this team just isn’t good enough to make a run in this loaded division.

3. Boston Red Sox

This franchise has done a lot of work attempting to ensure the debacle of the past two years is behind them. It really should be behind them, too. Bobby Valentine is gone, and they’ve brought in a mixture of veterans and young guys to reinvigorate the team. I think the team will be back to their winning ways. Shane Victorino, while past his hey day, should be able to get on base enough for newly signed Mike Napoli and Boston old timer Pedroia. Will Middlebrooks looks promising, but he is a rookie and won’t put up huge numbers. The Sox will need bounce back years from Jacoby Ellsbury and Jon Lester (which I think they’ll get). I don’t think Ryan Dempster will be good in this division, and the rest of their rotation and the bottom of their batting order leave a lot to be desired. Their bullpen looks solid, but they will need to be handed leads, not doing frequent stints of long relief to be utilized correctly. This team will be good this year and might even snag a wild card, but I can’t see them finishing better than third in the division.

2. Toronto Blue Jays

These guys are extremely favored to win this division thanks to the mammoth trade with Miami in the offseason. Don’t get me wrong, the Jays will be a good team. However, there are a lot of variables involved with their success. Jose Reyes has to stay healthy for a whole season. Melky Cabrera needs to be able to succeed without PED’s. The bottom half of their order needs to be productive. Edwin Encarnacion needs to produce like he did last year and Mark Buehrle needs to have a throwback season to his White Sox days. I struggle to buy into Encarnacion, Buehrle, and Dickey. I think all three will have less than stellar seasons. However, with the bat of Jose Bautista and the fear it instills in opposing pitchers, the talent around him should be able to flourish. I can see this team getting a wild card, but don’t count on a deep run in October.

1. Tampa Bay Rays

Two things define the Rays: young guys and pitching. Look, their lineup doesn’t boast big names of veterans who have already put up big numbers. Some of their players might wind up stars, some role players. Evan Longoria, their star, should be healthy all year and theoretically, should help the rest of the younger lineup around him. Their pitching, led by AL Cy Young winner David Price, will be good again this year. Ultimately, this team is going to be in a dog fight all year, especially because their hitting isn’t as potent as Boston or Toronto. However, their pitching should be able to lead Joe Maddon’s Rays to a division title in an AL East where the traditional powers are having down years.

That’s it! All six divisions have been predicted. How do mine stack up? Do you agree? Disagree? Let me know! Coming your way in the next couple days are the MVP, Cy Young, and RotY award predictions, as well as who I think will win each championship and, finally, the World Series. Be on the lookout! Don’t forget to follow me on twitter (@peterosespeedo) and like the page on Facebook (facebook.com/peteroseinaspeedo). Thanks!

PRESEASON PREDICTIONS: NL/AL CENTRAL


Disagree with anything posted here? Let me know about it! Tweet me at @peterosespeedo or find me on Facebook. www.facebook.com/peteroseinaspeedo.


NL Central

5. Milwaukee Brewers

It’s amazing what a matter of two years can do to a team. Two years ago, this team made the playoffs by winning the National League Central behind the strength of Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, and Zack Greinke. Fast forward to 2013, and two-thirds of the driving force behind that 2011 team is gone. Ryan Braun has been in a much-publicized struggle with the MLB about PED’s. Their first baseman, Mat Gamel, is injured and will miss the whole season. There’s no telling if Braun will make it through the season without a suspension, and even if he does and he’s off the steroids, his performance, in theory, should decrease. Their pitching staff is less than ideal, and their lineup lacks any form of pop beyond Braun. I can’t see this team doing anything at all this year.

4. Chicago Cubs

1908! 1908! Just kidding, but really. This club seems to be getting a little better. They’ve shed some of the huge contracts they accumulated throughout the years (if only they could get rid of Alfonso Soriano). They locked up shortstop Starlin Castro long term, and have a good prospect in Anthony Rizzo at first. Also, the second baseman, Darwin Barney, was a wiz on defense last year. Even their pitching isn’t looking awful. I really like their Opening Day starter Jeff Samardzija, Travis Wood is solid, they signed Edwin Jackson, and they still have Matt Garza. None of these pitchers are an “Ace”, but the collection is definitely serviceable. While this club is moving in the right direction, they still don’t have enough to make an impact in the division. Give them a few years though, and they should be in the thick of things.

3. Pittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh has fielded very compelling teams the past few years. They’ve been in the thick of the Central race by the All Star Break for the past two years, but the team has faded quickly following the Midsummer Classic each of those years. They have good pieces. They have a cornerstone player in McCutchen, and serviceable bats in Pedro Alvarez and prospect Starling Marte. A.J. Burnett had a great season after recovering from his preseason eye injury, McDonald and Correia were both OK, and they added Wandy Rodriguez in a trade with Houston. That being said, they got rid of one of their best players in closer Joel Hanrahan in a trade with Boston. Yes, closers are overrated, but Hanrahan was a major part of this team’s success. This is not a bad team by any stretch of the imagination, but they don’t have a dominant starter, and their lineup doesn’t have much to offer beyond McCutchen and Alvarez. Like the Cubs, I think they are headed in the right direction, but they aren’t quite ready yet.

2. St. Louis Cardinals

The incarnations of the Cardinals over the past few years have been some of the best baseball teams I’ve ever seen. Actually, since I’m only 22, they might be the best baseball teams I’ve ever seen. I really hate to say that, but they are the definition of clutch. The two things that keep me from putting this team number one in the division, though, are aging veterans and growing pains. Chris Carpenter, Beltran, and Holliday are not getting any younger, and have had some difficulty staying healthy in recent years.  The budding bats of Allen Craig and Matt Carpenter may take a downturn after their first full year. However, with team leaders Yadier Molina (I call him neck tat) and David Freese, along with pitching staff studs Wainwright and Garcia, there is no reason to think this team won’t be in a dogfight for the division title. Ultimately, I give them second place in the division because of their age and injuries, but the Cardinals should get a wild card berth because of their up and coming stars and their clutch nature.

1. Cincinnati Reds

Yeah yeah yeah, call me a homer all you want. I get it. I, personally, just think this Reds club has the most talent on the 25-man roster in the division. Their trade for Shin-Soo Choo finally brings a legitimate leadoff hitter to the lineup for Votto. Phillips gets to stay in a single spot consistently, and Cozart gets to move down to a more comfortable 6-7 hole for a second year player. I think Joey Votto is poised for a huge season. Bruce increased his home run total for the fifth year in a row. Cueto and Latos really stepped up last season, and Bronson Arroyo was consistent as always. There is the concern about Chapman, which is a pretty big concern. Even if he does start, though, the bullpen will still have a wealth of quality arms. Despite the talent on the roster, the Cardinals will quickly overtake the defending NL Central champs if Choo doesn’t get on base, if Latos doesn’t start strong, and if Chapman performs poorly (either as a starter or reliever). Health of the starting rotation is also a minor concern, but they have depth. This team will more than likely be fighting until the very end to win this division, but I think they win it nonetheless.

AL Central

5. Minnesota Twins

I’ve always been a fan of Joe Mauer. The stand up guy who becomes the franchise player for his hometown team. Reminds me of Barry Larkin and Pete. However, just because I’m a fan of Joe doesn’t mean his team is going to do well. They don’t have any pitching. They made a nice move to acquire Vance Worley from the Phillies this offseason, but Worley isn’t a number 1…except on Minnesota. Joe Mauer has had a hard time staying healthy the past couple years, and their next best bat is Josh Willingham. That won’t cut it, especially when they have to play juggernaut Detroit as much as they do.

4. Chicago White Sox

The Sox had a nice little run last season, and they have some good pieces in place. Young players like Dayan Viciedo and Chris Sale, along with Team Puerto Rico stud Alex Rios, are bright spots on this team and will be good in the future. However, the rest of the team is getting old. Really old. The two hardest hitting guys besides Rios and Viciedo are Konerko and Dunn, who aren’t getting any younger. With the rest of this division getting better, I don’t see how the Sox can really compete.

3. Kansas City Royals

Ah, Kansas City. The perennial “once the prospects come up next year, we’ll get ‘em” team. This team has definitely improved. Young guns like Eric Hosmer, Billy Butler, Mike Moustakas, and Salvador Perez seem to have the ability to anchor this team for a while. Unfortunately, the pitching staff is banged up. They do have James Shields, ex-Tampa Bay Ray, who will help, but young starters Danny Duffy and Felipe Paulino are both injured and not expected back until the middle of the summer, when it will be too late.

2. Cleveland Indians

There’s a lot to like about the Indians. They traded for speedster Drew Stubbs, signed another speedster in Michael Bourn to a multi-year deal, and got former AL East products Nick Swisher, Mike Aviles, and Mark Reynolds. There’s no doubting that the Tribe beefed up their lineup. They have all the aforementioned players, adding to the core of  Asdrubal Cabrera, Jason Kipnis, and Carlos Santana. As much as I like their offense, their pitching needs work. Justin Masterson is a good pitcher, but the rest of their rotation really needs to bring it this season if they want to go anywhere. Ubaldo Jimenez has a lot to prove. He hasn’t been anywhere near his old Colorado Rockies-self. Josh Tomlin will likely miss the whole year, and prospect Trevor Bauer will start the year in the minors. I wouldn’t count this squad out because of their reinvigorated lineup, but the team won’t be able to keep up with Detroit with their current rotation. Don’t be surprised if the Indians grab a wild card spot if their pitching steps up, though.

1. Detroit Tigers

There’s not much going on in the Detroit Tigers camp that you can snub at. Justin Verlander was insane again last year. Now third baseman Miguel Cabrera won the Triple Crown, the first to do so since Carl Yastrzemski won it in 1967. Prince Fielder provided an extra 30 Home Runs to the lineup. They have Austin Jackson, Omar Infante, and Torii Hunter to provide support to the two sluggers, and Fister, Scherzer, and Sanchez will backup Verlander in the rotation. Not only that, but they are getting Victor Martinez back this season. This is a hell of a team. The only question I have is their bullpen. They lost closer Jose Valverde, and they need the rest of the ‘pen to step up to hold leads for Verlander and Co. That said, I don’t see this team losing the division given their stingy rotation and potent offense. Look out for this team in October. They look poised to make a deep run.

 

PRESEASON PREDICTIONS: NL/AL WEST


Look, I know predictions are dumb, but they’re kind of fun. Here are my thoughts on the Western divisions. Keep your eyes peeled for the rest of my predictions. I’ll be posting them every other day up to Opening Day.


NL West

5. San Diego Padres

Look, the Padres don’t have much going for them, at least at the Major League level. Their third baseman Chase Headley, one of the bright spots of last season, will be out for the first 4-6 weeks. Former Reds catching prospect Yasmani Grandal got hit with a 50 game suspension for violating MLB’s policy on testosterone use. The most recognizable name in their pitching rotation is Edinson Volquez. One thing Padres fans can look forward to is more home runs, with the team making the decision to move the fences in. This might give Yonder Alonso the boost he needs to get going, but that might be it for the Padres this year.

4. Colorado Rockies

Last season wasn’t ideal for the Rockies, with star shortstop Troy Tulowitzki being out for a majority of the summer. That, combined with their severe lack of pitching (they had a four man rotation at one point last year), torpedoed any hopes they had of playing in October. Unfortunately, they’ve failed to acquire any pitching in the offseason. Tulo is set to be back, but we all know how injuries can be. Not only that, but their lineup lacks production beyond the shortstop and star outfielder Carlos Gonzalez. I don’t see the shallow lineup keeping up with the amount of runs their pitching staff will be giving out.

3. Arizona Diamondbacks

I really like what the D-Backs are doing. I really, really do. I even picked them to win the NL West last year. I love their pitching. Kennedy and Cahill are both solid, and they made a great addition to the rotation in Brandon McCarthy. They also have Randall Delgado, former Braves pitcher, who seems very promising. However, I think Wade Miley, with the big-time rookie campaign last season, will have a sophomore slump. Not only that, but I think their lineup lacks the pop it needs to win the division. Martin Prado, Aaron Hill, and Miguel Montero are all really nice players, but that’s likely to be the beef of their order. That’s not enough to get it done in this division.

2. San Francisco Giants

Yes, I know that the Giants won the World Series last year. Yes, I know that the Giants absolutely killed my Reds. Yes, I know that the Giants are in the heat of things every single year. They will be again this year. They have the reigning MVP of the senior circuit, they have the kung fu panda, and they still have a great pitching staff. The problem with the Giants, for me anyway, is that they seem to always get the most out of the least. That doesn’t always happen though. Their lineup has a few question marks (will Marco Scutaro put up numbers like he did on their World Series run), and there are still questions about what Lincecum will do this season as well. But with Posey, Sandoval, Cain, and their abundance of great bullpen arms, this team will be in the race until the last day, and will likely win a wild card spot.

1. Los Angeles Dodgers

This team is loaded with names. Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke. There is a lot of money invested in this team. They have the pitching, the speed, and the power to win big games and make big plays. In order for the Trolleydodgers to win this division, Adrian Gonzalez is going to need to have a bounce back year. Kemp will need to stay healthy. Their rotation will need to dominate and Josh Beckett will need to give up some chicken and beer in order to buy in. This is all especially important because they will be without shortstop Hanley Ramierez for some time. With the combination of their pitching and their star-studded lineup, they should be able to win this division, but they will need comeback years from a number of their big names.

AL West

5. Houston Astros

The Astros are fielding a AA team this year. I don’t have to write more, do I?

4. Oakland Athletics

The A’s were a great story last year. I really just don’t think they have enough to repeat. It’s not even that the A’s got worse, I just think the rest of the division just got better. I do think Cespedes will have a really good year, but the rest of their lineup and their rotation worry me. At least they have the Astros to beat up on now.

3. Seattle Mariners

The M’s upgraded over the offseason. The names don’t jump off the page like, say, the Angels’ acquisitions did the last two years. However, picking up Michael Morse and Kendrys Morales is a step in the right direction (if they can stay healthy). Jesus Montero should take another step forward at the plate this year, and King Felix will be King Felix. They don’t have enough to win anything significant this season, but they are headed in the right direction.

2. Texas Rangers

Texas is a team that, for the past year or two, I’m surprised that they’ve been able to keep making it as far as they have. They’ve lost more talent than they’ve brought in. They lost Cliff Lee, C.J. Wilson, Mike Napoli, and Josh Hamilton. They’ve brought in Yu Darvish, A.J. Pierzynski, and Lance Berkman. Look, this team still has a lot of good players. They still have Adrian Beltre, Ian Kinsler, Elvis Andrus, and Nelson Cruz. They still have an above average rotation. They will be in contention. That being said, I don’t believe the Rangers will be able to win the West this year, and with the amount of quality teams in the American League this year, I don’t think they’ll capture a wild card spot either. Their rotation, for me, just doesn’t cut it, and with Lance Berkman batting a probable third in their lineup, it just doesn’t seem as though they’ll be able to put up the runs they need to against the other AL powerhouses.

1. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

I can’t envision any scenario where this team doesn’t, at the very least, get a wild card spot this season. They should win their division. They have one of the most dynamic players in the league in Mike Trout, and he’s surrounded by veteran sluggers Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton. Their rotation could be better, but with the amount of runs the offense is likely to put up, they should be OK. If the older guys on the team stay healthy, there should be no reason that they don’t win the division and go deep into the playoffs. 

JERSEY

I said it in the last post, and it is immediately evident if you have even glanced over any articles pertaining to Reds’ Spring Training: there are a wealth of storylines to follow this year. The big two are obviously Chapman and Choo (poetry. I dabble.), but then there are the not so immediately apparent. Votto didn’t hit a home run after coming back from injury last season. Jay Bruce hit 34 home runs, but his batting average dipped for the second consecutive season. The team’s ace, Cueto, fell apart toward the end of the season, and exited his playoff start with an injury before he could get out of the first inning. Those are all very compelling things for fans to pay attention to during the 2013 season, but for my two cents, I have to say that watching Todd Frazier, Mr. Jersey, take over at the hot corner is the thing I’m most excited about.

Todd Frazier has an aura of mystique about him. I don’t think anyone really knows what he can or will become. Sure, his stats aren’t MVP-caliber, and he is a bit old for being a rookie last year. I honestly could not tell you what I think his stats will look like at the end of this year. He might hit .250 and knock out 15 bombs. He might hit .290 and drive in 90 runs. Who knows? 

You know what I do know, though? That guy loves being out on the baseball field. He puts 100% of his effort into every single play, and you can see it. He doesn’t have the most power, the best speed, or the highest average. Despite that, he still puts every ounce of himself into succeeding. I know I wasn’t around in the 70’s, but based on everything I’ve heard, he reminds me of Pete Rose. It’s been said that Pete wasn’t the fastest, didn’t have power, and wasn’t the most talented, but that he willed himself to be successful. Will Frazier end up with a career comparable with Rose? Absolutely not. I do think, though, that Frazier will have a lot of success based on his willingness to put everything into it. 

Scott Rolen is not with the club this season, obviously, and that leaves a huge hole in the leadership of the team. I think Todd, while not having the “father-figure” type role that Rolen had, will immensely help guide this team during the dog days of the summer. He’s a funny guy, which a clubhouse needs during the long season, and he’s a hard worker, which sets an example for the rest of the guys. Granted, I don’t think most of the guys on this team need a ton of motivation to work hard, but it helps. 

Look, Frazier will not be the best player on this ball club this year. There are certainly more provocative storylines than this one, and I realize that. I think what excites me most about Frazier is that no one really knows what to expect or look forward to. With Votto, we are expecting him to come back and hit .300/30/120. With Cueto, we are expecting him to progress into a 20+ win, top tier starter. We don’t really know what to expect from Frazier, and that’s what makes watching so exciting. 

THE CHAPMAN QUANDARY

There a lot of things about the 2013 incarnation of the Cincinnati Reds to be excited about and to be curious about. The ballclub traded away much-maligned center fielder Drew Stubbs for a tried and true lead off man in the form of Shin-Soo Choo. Votto is coming into camp healthy. Brandon Phillips will (hopefully) be able to stay in a pretty regular role within the batting order this year. The player I’m most excited to watch this year, Todd Frazier, will seemingly get a full year at the hot corner. Despite all of these captivating aspects of the upcoming season, they all pale in comparison to the number one Reds storyline of the spring; that being the fate of one Aroldis Chapman

When the Reds signed Mr. Chapman in 2010, I doubt many fans thought they would be petitioning for the fireball pitcher to pitch a possible one inning per game as a closer. Chapman was a starter before he defected to America. He was starting in the minor leagues. Fans, and probably those within the organization as well, thought they had a sure-fire ace on their hands.  The Reds handed him a 5 year, $30 million deal, expecting him to be a top tier left handed starter that the rotation desperately needed. Even last spring, the organization had every intention of making Chapman into a starter before closer Ryan Madson was sidelined for the year before even throwing a pitch. In fact, Chapman was the best starter in Reds camp that same spring. Out of necessity, he was moved into the bullpen to serve as the closer, and he excelled. A lot. He was the leader of an unbelievably dominant bullpen, featuring recently signed Sean Marshall, surprisingly successful Alfredo Simon, and consistent Sam LeCure, that helped the rotation lead the Reds to the 2012 National League Central Championship.

However, with Walt Jocketty’s deadline trade for All Star reliever Jonathan Broxton, the organization had options to consider for the expensive Cuban pitcher before the upcoming season. Majority owner Bob Castellini and Jocketty both were in favor of trying the starting “experiment” once more.  Manager Dusty Baker has been consistently disapproving of the choice throughout this spring. Every writer, radio host, and fan has an opinion on what role Chapman’s arm should take during the 2013 campaign. Here are my thoughts on the (not-so) complicated situation…

It’s easy to understand why Dusty wants Chapman to stay put. He only blew five saves last year. He saved 38 games last year. When Chapman is at the back of that pen, the 7th, 8th, and 9th innings look down right scary to opposing hitters and managers. You saw it last year. Chapman made hitters look more turned around than a blind guy in a revolving doorway. I understand Dusty’s view on it, but it doesn’t make it right. Look, your boss is paying this guy a ton of money. He needs to maximize his value. There’s no guarantee that Chapman will resign with Cincinnati in a couple years, and the organization needs to recoup some of their investment. Chapman will draw more people as a known quantity every fifth day rather than an unknown variable every night. Not only that, but Dusty and some of the players act as if Chapman has never done the starting thing before. He has done it, and he succeeded at it. Not only has he succeeded, but he did it as recently as last spring. I also find it funny how Dusty, and some Reds fans, forget how fatigued Chapman would get following three or four straight days of pitching. He suffered from shoulder inflammation and had to be shut down for a period of time. His body was not used to the heavy workload of pitching in consecutive games. If Chapman starts, he will have one start (let’s say 6 innings for the sake of conjecture), and then four days of rest to let his arm recover. As I said before, he has started before and done so effectively. While he had success last year as a closer, it did take its toll on his body, and starting should keep him fresh.

In my mind, Aroldis Chapman, the Cuban Missile, is more like a Cuban cigar. Do you want to smoke Cubans three nights in a row? No, your mouth will be begging you for mercy halfway through night two. A fine cigar is meant to be enjoyed, savored, slowly, once a week or so. The same goes for Chapman. Don’t burn him out with consecutive days of work. It’s proven to hurt him. Let the guy do what you’re paying him to do; start.  

Back Again.

Hello all,

It’s been a long time since I’ve posted under this moniker. This is mainly due to getting married/getting used to being married, getting taken over by corporate America at work, and trying to graduate from college in a somewhat timely manner. Not only that, but I think I bit off more than I could chew with trying to post a blog on a daily base for the entirety of the baseball season.

Today, though, the sun finally broke through the clouds here in Cincinnati, and spring training started yesterday. Spring has started to spring, and baseball is coming right along with it. That being said, I really want to start writing about baseball again. My goal this time around is to not burn myself out on it. You can expect to see one or two posts a week on the site. I will continue, as I tried to do when I started this site, to post the Reds lineup daily on our Twitter page (@peterosespeedo). The Twitter page will also feature poorly written, off the cuff, and mildly moronic commentary on most of the regular season games. There is also a new page on Facebook (www.facebook.com/peteroseinaspeedo) that will also post the lineups and let you know when there is a new blog post is up on the website. We encourage fan interaction. Please, please, please tweet at us, comment on our page, and tell your friends about the site. That helps make this fun and worthwhile.

Another thing that I’m aiming to do this year is make a limited run of t-shirts and make some stickers, buttons, etc. These will be either a) extremely inexpensive for you guys, or b) free for you guys. It’s something that I wanted to do when I first started envisioning this site, and something that I think will prove to be possible this year.

If you’re reading this, I sincerely thank you for taking the time to check this out. There are tons of blogs out there, and the fact that you’re here is huge. I hope this becomes a fun medium for you (and for myself) to discuss and read about baseball. Please, if you like what you are reading here, share it with your friends. It would mean a lot to us. Hopefully we can all enjoy this season together, and end it with celebrating a Cincinnati World Series Championship.

Spring is here, baseball in here, and Pete Rose is here, in a speedo.

w. www.peteroseinaspeedo.com

f. www.facebook.com/peteroseinaspeedo

t. @peterosespeedo

P.S. How about that leadoff walk to begin Spring Training? 

Trades. The Todd. Twinning.

Cut me some slack. I needed another word that began with a T.

Look, there are a lot of trade rumors out there. I know, it’s exciting. Wondering who is ‘selling’ and what star player your team might swing a deal for. I look at the sites just like you. It’s a fun part of a long, long season. I get it. We’ve watched most of the same guys for ninety some games now. We want a new face, a new name. We want our team to be relevant in the national media outlets. There’s nothing really wrong with that. We’re in the dog days of summer and we want something new to talk about. 

Let’s be glad that most MLB exec’s don’t think like we do, though. At least Walt doesn’t, anyway. I’m not going to sit here and tell you that I think this team is good enough to sit with what they have and win a playoff series. The talking heads of the local media seemed to have forgotten just how bad this team is at getting on in front of Votto since Votto got hurt. “Stay positive,” they say. “They’re 16 over,” they say. Then they might make fun of you for disagreeing with them or pointing out glaring issues on the team. 

I really would like to see this team go after Shane Victorino. I stated my reasons yesterday, and won’t rehash them all. They could use a proven leadoff hitter. But you know what? There’s no guarantee that the Phillies are trading away anybody. They haven’t yet. I texted a friend of mine who lives in Philly asking him how the town felt about the Phils thus far. “We’re amped on the Phils,” he said. Plus, if Philly is wanting a bounty for the two month rental of a guy having a down turn, then Walt & Co. shouldn’t do it. This team shelled out a lot of guys to get two (2) guys this offseason. Don’t overpay for a rental, but don’t say that this team doesn’t need to be better in order to go far this fall. And that’s that.

THE TODD

Local Cincy media is making a push for Frazier being the NL Rookie of the Year this year. That’d be really cool if the Toddfather won it. The last Red to win the award was Scott Williamson in 1999. Before that? Chris Sabo. So that would be cool. But look. As much as I believe in Frazier, as much as I think he has what it takes to be the starting third baseman for the Reds for next year and beyond, I don’t think he is getting, or should get, the award. Todd Frazier isn’t playing full time. If Joey wasn’t hurt right now, he would be splitting time with Scott Rolen at third. 

Bryce Harper and Todd Frazier have similar stats. In some cases, Frazier’s are better than Harper. Harper is 19. He’s a phenomenon. Have you watched this kid play? This kid goes hard every at bat, every time to first base, every time he’s on the basepaths. Don’t get me wrong, Todd looks as if he loves this game and wants nothing more that to be playing it. I just think that Harper, being a phenomenon as he is, should get this award. Now, that being said, there is a ton of time left in this season. If Todd’s numbers drastically dwarf Harper’s by the end of the year, give it to Frazier every single time. Right now, as it stands though, give it to Bryce. It will do a lot for the sport, probably get a lot of fringe fans more interested. That’s my opinion though. Just like a butthole, everyone has one and they all stink. So.

Twinning.

The Reds won again last night. Timely hitting and good enough pitching. Playing against a glorified AA team helps, too. But these guys are rolling right now. No Votto. No bench. No real leadoff hitter. Little production from Bruce. But they are winning. This season reminds me a lot of 2010. It seemed like anything Dusty did that year worked. It’s feeling like that again. So please, as i did yesterday, I implore you guys to enjoy this. Don’t try to be an ESPN analyst and deconstruct the lineups. Don’t get bummed if there are no new faces after the deadline. Just enjoy it, because you as a fan deserve it. Have fun. It’s summer. Have a ice cold beer and watch a baseball game. Hang out. Relax. They aren’t going anywhere.

Just a reminder, the best place to get up to date news, lineups, and other baseball/Reds dealings is on my twitter account. www.twitter.com/peterosespeedo and as always, the blog can be found at www.peteroseinaspeedo.com. 

And look, this is a fan blog, and I’m sure the reading audience is small if not non-existant. I do this for fun, for now, but I would love to gain a following and see where this thing can go. So please, if you are reading this and like my writing, tweet about me, tell your friends about me, whatever. It would mean a ton to me. Thank you.  

Forgive Me, Oh Readers, For The Long Hiatus

Well, a month ago today I got married. It was a great day, a great honeymoon. Sorry for being completely absent for a month. Frankly, getting used to living with my wife was more important than this blog that probably no one reads. My apologies to all the hypothetical readers out there. I’m back though, so turn that frown upside down, champion.

Let’s start off by talking about the Cincinnati Reds.

First of all, if you are down on this team right now, shame on you.
This team has been, in the words of Hall of Famer Barry Larkin, “UN-STINKING-BELIEVABLE”. Cueto has been phenomenal, Homer has surpassed any expectations that I had going into the season, and Latos, Leake, and Arroyo have been very good at times as well. The offense, led by Brandon Phillips and Ryan Ludwick (say whaaaaat), with Frazier, Rolen (WHAAAAAT), and others performing their roles in the absence of Joseph Daniel Votto has been commendable. They are winning games, and a lot of them. Who cares if the Pirates and Cards keep winning? As long as the Reds are, I don’t want to hear fans complaining. Just enjoy the ride.

Oh, and Barry Larkin was inducted into the National Baseball Hall of Fame yesterday. I watched his speech. It was awesome. If you can’t support this guy and his induction, you’re probably one of the people that are complaining about the lineup when the Reds finished their 8-2 homestand. Shame on you. Great player, great guy. My favorite Red. 

Who should the Reds trade for?

Shane Victorino.

Look, Juan Pierre is a cheaper option. Denard Span might be nice. Carlos Quentin got signed already. Shane Victorino is having a down year for the Phillies, but he’s also unhappy there. He’s got more history of performance than most of the other names that have been linked to the Reds. Sure, he might cost more. But I thought this was all in? It’s like booking a beachside hotel, renting a Porsche to drive there, but then eating McDonalds every night while on vacation. I say go for it. He is in a contract year. He can come here, get that ‘change of scenery’ boost, and show teams why he deserves a fat contract at the end of this season, all while helping the Reds make the World Series. There ya go. Victorino. Book it.

Other moves that are coming across the wire….

That big 10 player trade between the Blue Jays and Astros. 
Meh.

Carlos Lee going from Astros to Marlins (when the Marlins were still contenders).

Anibal Sanchez and Omar Infante from the Marlins to the Tigers (I guess the Marlins aren’t contenders anymore…)

Ryan Dempster from the Cubs to the Braves (the premature trade)…

Oh, and Ichiro just got traded to the Yankees. So there’s that.


I’m still getting back into the routine of blogging, and I didn’t have a ton of time to plan this one out. I’ll leave you with this awesome chart comparing your favorite MLB teams to beers. Enjoy. http://www.tauntr.com/content/mlb-team-brews

So, the MLB Draft started last night.

AND I COULDN’T HAVE CARED LESS.

I’m sorry. I just can’t make myself care. Before I start on my rant, here are the Reds’ picks so far. 

#14: Nick Travieso RHP (HS)
#49: Jesse Winker RF (HS)
#57: Jeff Gelalich OF (UCLA)
#78: Tanner Rahier SS (HS)

There you go. Those are their picks as of now. You probably know more about them than I do. Out of the three major sports (NFL, NBA, MLB), Major League Baseball has the worst draft. I’m surprised that they even try to get fans interested. Half of these kids are out of High School. I can guarantee you that no one is paying attention to High School baseball (except Scouts and Parents) across the country. With the NBA, we have the NCAA tournament to get to know these kids. The NFL and BCS bowl games are the biggest things going in sports right now, and you’d be living under a rock if you didn’t know who Andrew Luck or RG3 are. I wouldn’t know Nick Travieso from Adam. Also, it’s not televised (unless you have MLB Network, I do not). You also won’t see these kids in a Major League uniform for at least 3-4 years, if ever. These prospects likely either won’t develop, they’ll get hurt, or they’ll get traded before we ever see them. The MLB draft means absolutely nothing.

It doesn’t really help when one of the first round picks sounded like he would rather be shucking corn than signing a contract with the Pirates. In the NFL and NBA, we at least know the first/second round picks and they actually sound somewhat happy to be there. Oh, and speaking of happy to be there, here’s a picture of CC Sabathia looking as if he’s pondering what McDonald’s value meal he’d rather have while representing his club at the draft. So there’s that. 

TO ASTERISK OR NOT TO ASTERISK: NOHAN SANTANA

Short answer: no. The Cardinals are sore losers. Since this story is almost a week old, I’ll keep this short. Yes, I realize that the MLB needs to incorporate some sort of replay to make sure calls like this and that Armando Gallaraga ruined perfect game call get right. But they haven’t yet. Oh well. Did you guys see how close that ball was to being foul? Literally a matter of an inch. Hey Cards fans, if that’s as close as you got to a hit, shut up. You scored one run over the weekend. It’s not like this was a fluke. So please, do baseball a favor; shut up and take your place in history. Thanks.

WHY REDS FANS SHOULD BE HAPPY.


Look, I listen to sports talk radio. I hear your complaints and concerns. I know that Latos has been, well, bad. I know that they have no bench. I know that the lineup can be frustrating. But they’re in first place in spite of that. Yeah, if they had been better equipped, they could be farther away from the Cards than three games. But damn, they have the best record in baseball over the last forty or so games. They’re winning. Look, when/if they tank, we can revisit why they tanked, which are likely to be a combination of the reasons I just listed. But right now they’re winning. Can we please just let ourselves, as fans, to watch the games and enjoy the fact that we are watching a winning baseball team right now? I mean, really, it’s just baseball. It’s supposed to be fun. The collective ‘we’ as Reds fans shouldn’t be running players’ wives off of twitter because of his performance on the field. Please. Just cool it, and enjoy the winning. Thanks.

That’s it for today. Sorry it’s a little short. Still working out the kinks in the writing process. Some logistical things: you can now find us at www.peteroseinaspeedo.com. Follow us on twitter @peterosespeedo. Please, if you like what we’re doing here, share the blog, Retweet a tweet, whatever. Just let people know that this blog is here. Also, as always, most news you don’t find here will be found on the twitter page. I also noticed that Cincinnati blogs/beat writers don’t tweet out the opposing lineups. I do. Reason enough to follow me? Yep. Thanks. 

-DS


Here we are again..

Right? Another disappointing, disheartening Reds loss for us to work through. The good thing (sarcasm) is that we have a whole day of nothing to sit and think about it. And, since I brought it upon myself to write about this team, it is my job to write about it.

JOEY VOTTO GETS TIRED TOO.

Joey Votto is just like you or me. He gets tired. He played twenty games in a row without an off day. Four different cities (five if you count their flight to Houston last night). He deserved a day off. Sure, we could rip Dusty for starting Costanzo (I, in all my infinite baseball wisdom, would have started Cairo) and we could rip him for when he decided to put Votto in to pinch hit (in case you missed it, Heisey got a hit, after a horrible at bat by Brandon Phillips, and Frazier was up with one out. Votto gets a hit in place of Frazier, Cairo and Hanigan both K). You can’t pin this loss on Dusty, though. Joey needed a day. That, believe it or not, will happen throughout the year.

Last night’s loss was the fault of Mr. Walt Jocketty.

Look. You and I both realize that the bench players are on the bench for a reason. They aren’t good enough (in most cases) to be starters. But seriously, Walt, you couldn’t do better than this?  


Here was the Reds bench last night (excluding Votto). Ludwick, Valdez, Mesoraco, Cairo. Costanzo, obviously, played first last night. Here are their batting averages.

Ludwick: .206
Valdez: .174
Meso: .209
Cairo: .152
Costanzo: .067

Just read that to yourself outloud.

That’s bad. But this isn’t Dusty’s fault. Votto needed a day off. He gave it to him on (theoretically) the day that they would need the least amount of runs to win, which is when Cueto pitches. Dusty can’t swing the bat for these guys, and, believe it or not, can’t decide who is on the team. Dusty doesn’t sign these guys. Walt did. Granted, we can take Meso out of this equation. Batting Average isn’t great, but he splits a lot of time with Hanigan and is a rookie. The rest don’t belong on this team. They just don’t. I’m sorry, but you can’t blame Dusty for mismanaging a game when he has to choose between a .206 and .067 hitter to pinch hit or spot start. Just doesn’t work that way.
Lay your blame with Walt. Oh, and you know what the scary part is?

They don’t have any  solutions. 

Think on that.

CHANGING GABP: WHY THIS IS STUPID.

Moving right along. After the Colorado series this past weekend, a certain radio host in Cincinnati thought the amount of home runs was “Mickey Mouse” or “Beer League Softball”. He suggested raising the fences, putting up netting (yeah, seriously), and limiting the amount of home runs the teams could hit. I hope the last one was a joke.

Sure, chances are GABP was built with Dunn and Jr. smacking taters out of it for a long time. Those times are over. But I simply think it’s irresponsible to suggest that the ballpark needs changed. Look, both teams get the (dis)advantage of the stadium when the Reds are at home. Look, I don’t know where they will lineup compared to Jr. and Dunn later in their careers, but in case you didn’t know, Votto and Bruce can smash the ball. No, trust me. They can. Now look, pitchers don’t like pitching here because of the small confines, but hitters love it. And I can assure you that in San Diego, pitchers love it and hitters hate it. That’s part of baseball. Parks can be as big or small as the teams want. They can characterize it with different features to build a team around (Think the right field porch in Yankee Stadium, and the Green Monster in Fenway). That’s part of baseball. There are hitters parks and pitchers parks. That won’t change until Selig makes all parks become uniform, which I don’t see happening. Quit whining.

But seriously, how ugly would netting be at GABP?

Burnett and Oswalt

The Reds got to know AJ Burnett pretty well last night. What did I tell you? Burnett would benefit from the trade to the Pirates, and a switch in divisions. This year, the AL East (excluding the Yankees, the team Burnett pitched for) have a total of 269 Home Runs. In the NL Central (excluding Pirates, who Burnett pitches for now), has 251 Home Runs so far this year. That may not seem like a huge gap, but don’t forget that the NL Central has an extra team. The NL Central may be one of the weakest divisions in the MLB. The AL East is arguably the strongest. Burnett will thrive in Pittsburgh, just like he did last night.

Speaking of pitchers switching teams..

Will Oswalt benefit the Rangers? Short answer: yes. Even if he just ends up as their number 5 starter, I don’t think any team in the Major Leagues would mind have the Roy O of old to be their number 5. And seriously, did you see the Seattle/Texas game last night? Seattle scored 21 runs. Seattle. Oswalt will be welcomed with open arms by Ron Washington. However, signing Oswalt was a huge risk for the Rangers. They went over budget for this guy. He has had a very recent injury history. And don’t forget the huge amount of pressure to execute with a WS title this year. It’s a move they needed to make. Someone was going to make it. No contender needs pitching more than Texas. But I still don’t think he will provide enough to lift this team to a Championship. He’s old, he’s hurt, he took half of a year off. There may be a ton of reward in signing Oswalt, but in my opinion, the risk would have outweighed it on this particular deal.

BIG NAMES GETTING HURT.

It’s been wild this year so far. So many big name players getting hurt. Matt Kemp and Troy Tulowitzki went down last night, Halladay and Weaver earlier in the week. Jacoby Ellsbury, Mariano Rivera, Berkman, Werth, Lucroy, Neftali Feliz, Michael Pineda, Vance Worley, Brian Wilson, the list goes on and on. It will be interesting to see if this continues. It’s been shocking the amount of big name (and even smaller name) players that have gone down. Is it from a lack of rest, preparation, or is it just a freak thing? Your thoughts on welcome. 

That’s it for tonight. No Reds game tonight. Only three on the slate: Detroit at Boston, Astros at Rockies, and Brewers at Dodgers. Reds take on the Houston Astros in Houston for a three game series starting tomorrow. Game starts at 8:05 Eastern Time. Since this is my first week with the blog, I’m not sure how posting will work over the weekends, but regardless of that, you can always find up to date Reds and MLB news, lineups, changes, and results on twitter. Follow us at @peterosespeedo.

And also, please spread the word. If you have read this blog at all and like what you read, please share a Tweet or a Facebook status telling your friends about it. It would mean a ton to us. Thank you, and go Reds. 

From The REDwood Forests, To The Gulf Stream Waters…

Get it?

I apologize. That was really, really lame. I’m sorry.

WHO ARE THEY?

But seriously…who are they? They can’t seem to figure it out themselves. We all watched a debacle on Monday afternoon. Bronson looked off (which, as we discussed, was to be expected at some point), and the offense looked lost. Last night, we watched the Reds pummel Morton (who had their number last year) for four runs in four innings, and then tack another four runs on their bullpen. We also watched Homer Bailey throw his second career complete game (and just the second complete game for Reds starters this year). Last week against the Braves and Rockies, they couldn’t win without the homerun. Last night, they notched eight runs without a single home run. Who are they?

I do think that Todd Frazier is going to be a big part of this team going forward. Not only is he an immortal life-saver who can hit home runs whilst rescuing kittens from trees (just try searching #ToddFrazierFacts on twitter…), but he is also, slowly but surely, becoming an integral part of this Reds offense. Let’s face it. Votto and Phillips can’t and won’t carry this team for 162 games. There have to be other players. Let’s also face this: Scott Rolen wasn’t producing. Sure, he could flash the leather at the hot corner, but it was almost inhumane for Dusty to keep sticking him in that four hole night after night. Last night, Frazier went 2/3 with two ribbies and a run scored. He’s hitting .278 with five homers and thirteen RBI in just 85 plate appearances. Those numbers aren’t sexy. His fielding could be better. But Frazier is a player who is determined to get better. Can’t you just see it in him? You saw the double to knock in Bruce last night. He looked like he couldn’t contain his intensity when he set foot on that second base bag and pointed towards the Reds dugout. More on Frazier later…

LEADOFF WOES

Another feature of your 2012 Cincinnati Reds: leadoff hitters are hitting a mere .162 on the year. Yeah, you read that right. One hundred sixty-two. They are getting on base at a rate of .196, have struck out 52 times, walked only nine (yes, 9), scored just nineteen runs, stolen one singular base, and have the lowest Total Base count outside of the number 9 spot in the order (Leadoff: 57, number 9: 44, team leader is number 3 batter with 100). 

Want a short version? Their leadoff hitters have sucked at leading off.

They aren’t getting on base. They aren’t hitting or walking. They strike out. They don’t steal bases. They aren’t getting across home plate. Who has been leading off for the Reds this year? That duty has been largely one of a Mr. Zack Cozart. This isn’t Cozart’s fault (well, some of it is. No matter where you bat in the order, you need to produce). However, let me give you some statistics..

In the leadoff spot, Cozart is hitting at a .189 clip, an OBP of .225, with 30 K and just six walks. He has 139 Plate Appearances in the leadoff spot.

When Cozart hits second in the order? He’s hitting with a Batting Average of .354, an OBP of .415, with 11 K and four walks. He has 53 Plate Appearances there. 

Dusty needs to realize that Cozart is not doing well there. This is his first full season in the bigs. Leading him off in every single game is not doing him favors because he has proven that he can’t produce in that spot. 

Brandon Phillips needs to be hitting first. Before he pulled his hamstring early in the year, that was the plan. He can at least get by batting leadoff. Cozart has proven that he can’t. I truly believe that if Dusty were to move Cozart to 5 or 6 in the order, that he would begin to swing the bat a bit better. And trust me, I can hear your thoughts right now. ‘Well Devin, that’s all well and good, but who will replace BP in the cleanup spot?’ 

Well, I’m glad you asked. For starters, Dusty could get off of his old style baseball mentality and put Bruce in the four hole. We all know that won’t happen though. “Gotta split up those lefties in the order,” he says. OK. Cool. Great.

TODD FRAZIER.

If you didn’t notice the bold faced type, I’ve reached my next point. To start off, hit Todd Frazier fourth. Sure, he’s a young guy and just trying to prove that he belongs on the everyday roster. But he’s a Jersey kid. A right handed batting Jersey kid who will work hard to prove his importance to the team. Put him in there. He can drive in the runs, he can get on base for Bruce. In short, he can produce. You know what else? I want to see Todd Frazier as the starting third baseman for this team when Scott Rolen gets off the DL. I said it earlier. Todd Frazier is young and can produce. Scott Rolen is old and cannot. Yes, I know this likely won’t happen. Dusty loves his veterans and won’t give a job away due to injury. But you almost have to make this move, right? Todd Frazier stepped in when Rolen went down and is hitting 104 percentage points better than Rolen. He is young and provides a much needed spark into the offense of this team. You’ve seen it, too. Don’t deny it. Frazier might be a little rough right now, but he’s still growing into this starting role. I think that he has the skill and work ethic to be a third part to the young offensive core of Votto and Bruce. If Dusty doesn’t let Frazier keep the third base job after Rolen comes back, call the Cincinnati Police Department and report a case of highway robbery (I’m full of these cheesy jokes tonight). The team needs to get younger for a long, tough pennant race, and hopefully a successful October campaign. Scott Rolen doesn’t fit into that picture as the starting third baseman.

WHAT CAN WE EXPECT FROM THESE INDENTITY-LESS REDS THIS SEASON?

I think this team has a lot of potential on it. Votto is the image of consistency. Frazier has brought production to a position desperately needing it. Cueto and Bailey have outdone themselves on the majority of their starts this year. Arroyo has had a bounce back year. The bullpen (including Chapman; still sporting a 0.00 ERA) has been absolutely lights out. Ryan Hanigan has grown a ton both behind the plate and with the bat. Mesoraco seems to still be growing into his role. Leake, Latos, Bruce, Stubbs, and Phillips need to get better. Bruce has been streaky. Stubbs is decent, but still not the level that they need him to be. Phillips has been mediocre at the plate. Latos has been mediocre from the mound. Leake, while getting better in his last few starts, started off rough and needs to improve. Dusty needs to make some changes to the batting order. Their bench is atrocious. 

But they have a chance. Bruce will knock in close to 30/100. Phillips should wake up enough at the plate to be sufficient, and his defense cures a lot of ills caused by his batwork. Leake and Latos both have the skill to get better, and really have shown it as of late. If the Cardinals or Brewers were constituted like they were last year, this team wouldn’t have a shot in the dark. But Fielder and Pujols are both gone, and both teams have had an almost unreal amount of injuries. And let’s be honest guys, Pittsburgh, Houston, and Chicago aren’t doing anything this year but planning a nice offseason vacation. I think the Reds could win the NL Central, and really have a good shot at it. The Cardinals will still be a tough out (they always are), and will be in it down the stretch. With their age though, I think the Reds have them beat. 

How far do they get in the playoffs, though?
Not very. Division winners (as of right now) look to be the Nationals and Dodgers, and wild cards of Miami and the Mets. I don’t think the Mets stick around. I think the Braves come back, the Marlins could get one, and maybe the Giants or Diamondbacks. You can never count the Phillies out either, despite Halladay, Howard, and Utley being out still. 

I don’t think the Reds can beat the Phillies. They struggle against dominate pitching. (I know what you’re thinking, and CC has struggled this year). They’ve shown they can beat the Braves and Marlins, and I have faith they could beat the Giants or Dbacks. However, I don’t see them overtaking the Dodgers for the best record. If the Reds face the Nats in the first round, don’t get too excited. Yes, Strasburg might have an innings cap. Zimmerman (despite some tough luck outings) and Gio Gonzalez have outdone themselves so far. Their offense isn’t fantastic, but has been effective against Reds pitching so far this year. If they don’t draw the Nats, I could see them beating just about any other team in the NL except the Dodgers. They look scary. Especially if they acquire Hamels later this year. Yikes. So those are my predictions so far. Good thing it’s only May.

AROLDIS CHAPMAN: MYSTERY MAN

I’m not going to comment on this Aroldis Chapman business. Lots of people on the radio and on blogs today have discussed the possible links between his speeding tickets/arrest, his $18MM lawsuit, and his girlfriend getting robbed last night. I don’t have any facts. I’m not a Private Investigator, a Reds executive, a beat writer, or Nostradamus. Cool it on the conspiracy theories and wait for the truth.

That’s it for today. 
Reds (Cueto) @ Pirates (Burnett) tonight.
Watch out for Burnett, guys. He might have fallen apart with the Yankees in the tough AL East, but the NL Central is a much, much weaker division. He’ll be a lot better this season (not a Cy Young contender, but not as bad as he was in pinstripes.) Cueto needs to rebound tonight, too. Good matchup. Go watch it. Now.

Don’t forget to share this blog with your friends. Today was Reds-centric, but I will be blogging about both the Reds and other baseball news. Hope you like the new look. The URL for the blog is peteroseinaspeedo.tumblr.com and the twitter handle is @peterosespeedo. Thanks.

-DS 


News From the Baseball World: 5/29/12 Edition

Roy Oswalt (image Courtesy of ESPN)

ROY O TO TEXAS

Alright, I admit it. I was coming up with topics for the blog this morning at work, and my first one was “Oswalt contract: where will he land?” Well, it looks like that question has already been answered.

Roy O is a Texas Ranger. The Dallas Morning News first reported the signing. It hasn’t been made official yet by either the club or Oswalt, but many are reporting that it is a one year deal for about $5MM with a possible $1MM in incentives. 

I was going to write about how Oswalt now had a huge market for his services. In the past two days, both Jared Weaver and Roy Halladay (of the Angels and Phillies, respectively) have gone down to injuries. The Cardinals are still without Chris Carpenter. The Orioles, Red Sox, and Yankees could all use pitching. Even the Dodgers, who surprisingly jumped out to own the current best record in the MLB, were said to have watched Oswalt throw. 

Because Oswalt has reached an agreement with Texas, I won’t pain you with reasons why Oswalt could have been a fit with any of these teams. Texas wanted their guy. They got him. 

This leads into my next topic, which is……

Josh Hamilton (Image Courtesy of midwestsportsfans.com)

DOES TEXAS HAVE ENOUGH TO WIN IT ALL?

Once again, I admit that I came up with this topic this morning. That is, of course, before the Oswalt deal. However…

Do they?

Let’s break this down pre- and post- Oswalt signing.

Pre-O:
Their offense is scary.  Among the 14 American League teams, Texas ranks 1 in runs, 1 in hits, 1 in HR, 1 in BA, 1 in OBP, 1 in SLG%, and 1 in OPS. 

Josh Hamilton leads all of MLB with 20 Home Runs. (In case you didn’t remember, it’s May…)

It seems like this team can’t lose. Only the Dodgers have a better record. And yet, I don’t think this team could win a World Series. Look at the pitching staff. The past two years in the world series, this offense worked behind Cliff Lee and CJ Wilson. They couldn’t win with them. Their Opening Day starter was Colby Lewis. He’s not bad. Matt Harrison isn’t awful either. Yu Darvish has been surprisingly good so far in his inaugural season stateside. 

But let’s face it.

Colby Lewis isn’t Cliff Lee. Maybe close to Wilson, but not Lee. Harrison is OK, but not phenomenal. And if we look at the track record of other Japanese pitchers, Major League hitters will eventually catch up with Darvish, it’s just a matter of when. 

Sure, their offense is scary. If I was cool and worked at ESPN and was in charge of the Power Rankings, I would put them No.1. But their pitching isn’t enough. They’ve had a good offense the last two years. In 2010 they had Cliff Lee and CJ Wilson and they couldn’t win. They won’t win it all this year, either.

Post-O:

I don’t think an aging Oswalt that took a half-season off will augment this pitching staff enough to make enough of a difference. Could he return to his form from a couple years ago in Philly? Of course he could. I just don’t think he will. Still don’t see them winning the World Series. 

Phillies

PHILLY PHIRE SALE?

Yes, I get it. The calendar hasn’t yet reached June. A lot could happen between now and September. Strasburg might get shut down, the Braves and Marlins will flake away, blah blah blah. I’m friends with a die hard Philly fan. I’ve heard it all. Let me speculate.

The Phillies are currently 26-24, 4.0 games back of 1st place Washington, and tied for last place in the National League East with Atlanta. Howard has been gone all year. Utley is hurt yet again. Placido Polanco is, well, old. Cliff Lee has already had a stint on the DL this year. Halladay just went on the DL. Vance Worley is on the DL. Cole Hamels has hit an 18 year old kid and, also, pitched very well. They let Oswalt go, and brought in Papelbon from Boston. 

The real issue here is the amount of Free Agents they’ll have following the season.

Not even the amount of Free Agents, but who they are.

Cole Hamels. Hunter Pence. Shane Victorino.

Those are the three biggest named Phillies hitting the FA market.
Now, I realize it’s early and a lot can happen. But if June passes and July comes, and the Phillies are still dealing with injuries like they are now, should they keep these players?
They can’t trade Hunter Pence. Right now, especially with Howard and Utley out, he is the center of their offense. He’s still fairly young too, which is something the rest of the Phillies really aren’t. 

They probably won’t trade Victorino. He’s a good player, but I don’t think he’ll command enough of a return for the Phils to really consider trading him.

Hamels is the likely trade candidate. Hamels is an ace among aces. He’s tearing it up so far this year (both opposing hitters’ Batting Averages and Bryce Harper’s back). There will be plenty of teams in the hunt this year that need a pitcher for the stretch and will pay handily for one. Think about it. The Dodgers are first place. Can you imagine a team made up of Clayton Kershaw, Cole Hamels, Matt Kemp, and Andre Ethier? The new ownership will also be ready to make a move to contend. Then you have the Yankees and Red Sox who should still be in the hunt come July; the Orioles if they can stay in it, maybe even the Cardinals among others. The Phillies almost have to trade them, don’t they? Pence will command a hefty paycheck, and Victorino won’t be “cheap”. Can they afford to sign both of those guys (that have virtually been their offense with the frequent absences of Polanco, Utley, and Howard), and keep Hamels, especially with the salaries of Halladay and Lee? Maybe, we shall see. I bet Magic Johnson has already put in a call.

Giancarlo Stanton (Image Courtesy of Bleacher Report)

WHY MIAMI CAN’T HAVE NICE THINGS: GIANCARLO STANTON

Giancarlo Stanton changed his name in the offseason. Apparently that magically gave him the ability to hit everything he possibly could in his new home ballpark with his Home Runs. So far, he has broke the video scoreboard, hit the Budweiser sign in Left-Center, and hit that stupid eyesore of a sculpture in center. I didn’t have any luck looking up videos, but here’s an article showing pictures of each charge of vandalism against the new Marlins Park. (Thanks fishstripes.com).

Todd Frazier (Image Courtesy of Bleacher Report)

TODD FRAZIER SAVES DUDE

So according to Reds beat writer Mark Sheldon, today, Tuesday, Todd Frazier and Ryan Ludwick of the Reds were eating lunch in Pittsburgh. Todd saw a guy across the room choking. Todd saved his life. Read the full story here. 

So, the Reds lost today.

Bronson lasted just four innings; his shortest outing of the year. He gave up four runs.
This is the Bronson we know, though. He gives you a fairly good outing every five days; usually 3-4 runs, 6-7 innings. He’ll also give you some not-so-good outings every so often. Today was one of those days.

But we know that going in. That’s what you get with Arroyo. Nothing new.
You know what else isn’t new?
The Reds inability to consistently put up and manufacture runs.
They simply can’t do it.
They can’t get on, get over, or get in.
They rely on the home run, and can’t score otherwise.

Before today, the Reds had won eight of their last ten. In their last ten, they hit 20 Home Runs. We all knew that had to end at some point. Sure, the home run is fun, exciting, and gets casual fans to watch. But it’s inconsistent and unreliable. This team just can’t manufacture runs the way they need to.

Another glaring part of this team is the bench. Dusty ran out Wilson Valdez and Miguel Cairo today instead of Cozart and Frazier. Look, I get it. You haven’t had an off day since May 10th. It’s now May 28th. You have to give guys time off to keep them fresh. But Wilson Valdez? Walt could do better, right? And God love Miguel Cairo and everything he gave this team (especially in the 2010 playoff run), but dude is almost 40 years old. You know who else is almost 40? Scott Rolen. I don’t know much about baseball, but I do know that if you have a 40 year old starter, the one thing you don’t do is sign a 40 year old back up to back up said 40 year old starter. That’s a recipe for disaster.

The issue is the bench doesn’t give this team anything. Heck, even some of the starters give this team anything. But the real issue is that there aren’t any other options. Remember last year, when everyone was calling for Cozart and Alonso all year? Yeah, well, Cozart is up here and Alonso is living it up (ha) in Cali. We don’t have anyone to bring up to improve this team. There are four players, according to the Louisville Bats website, that are hitting over .250. Those are Gathright, Janish, Costanzo, and Navarro. Gathright has 12 AB in four games. Janish is hurt. Constanzo is up at the Major League level, and Navarro is a third catcher.

Depth is the problem with this team. I hate to say it, but look at the Cardinals. Despite the major injuries they have, they are still winning. They have that ‘next man up’ mentality. The Reds do not.

The Past Couple Weeks

The past couple weeks have been crazy.

Think about it.

May 10th was the last off day for the Reds. They came off winning two of three against the Brewers. They were heading into a stretch of fourteen against teams with winning records. They started, well, slow. Bad even.

They got embarrassed by the Nationals…again.
Mike Leake looked bad again. The offense sputtered. Joey Votto hit a walk off grand slam,
but the team still went on to split two game series against both the Braves and Mets.

The Reds looked bad. Really, really bad. They couldn’t even take two from the Mets (and does anyone think the Mets are really for real?) and they were heading into a three game series against the Yankees. They should have won game 1. They didn’t. It seemed like every time Ivan Nova recorded an out in game 2, it was a strikeout. And yet, somehow, the Reds won. And then the staff ace, Mr. Cueto, took it to the Yanks in game 3. 

Like me, you probably had some cautious optimism after that Sunday game. They just took two of three from the Yankees. Chapman, whether you think he should be or not, was put in charge of closing out games and had been solid all year. And they were coming home to play the Braves. 

How many of you were hoping for a split? Be honest, raise your hands. I was. I thought, ‘Hey, you know what. They just surprisingly took 2 of 3 from the Yankees. If they can take two of four at home, that will put them at .500 for that 14 game stretch, and then they can take it to the scrubs that they play for the next twelve games.’

They swept the Braves. 
Sure, no Chipper (also, if you had a problem with the Reds honoring Chipper, you just don’t get it), no McCann, and, as we see now, Freeman wasn’t himself, either.
But still, wins are wins, right? Right?
And we saw some good signs from the Redlegs.
Everyone is contributing.

Frazier, Cozart, Stubbs, Phillips, Mesoraco, Leake, Bailey. 
Notice who isn’t on that list.
Votto and Bruce.

At the point that the Braves series ended, Votto and Bruce had gone a combined 5-40 (yeah, that’s a .125 BA) throughout the winning streak. I’ve listened to Cincinnati sports talk radio. People were complaining about this. Look at it this way, people. Your Reds just swept the Atlanta Braves. That once defunct offense blew up and carried the team, and they aren’t even getting what they expect from the two stars yet. 

Can you imagine what it will be like when Votto and Bruce come around? 

Yikes. Watch out.

And then, this past weekend, they took two of three from the Rockies (in my opinion, the team with probably the worst color scheme in the game. Purple and black? Really?). As expected, Tulo and Gonzalez hit the ball, but for the most part, no one else did. And their pitching just wasn’t good enough. The Rockies pitchers were so bad that on Saturday night, Leake couldn’t even get through four innings and the Reds still won. 

Now we have the Pirates and Astros for the next nine games. 

This team has a lot of questions facing it. Will the offense continue to click? Were the bad outings by Cueto and Leake aberrations? Can this team beat up on the Pirates and Astros (teams that they struggled against last year)? Will Chapman continue to be effective in the closer role? We shall see.

But, for right now, the Reds are in first place.

Relish in that fact on your memorial day.